Tips on Betting Baseball: Two Ignored Stats

When betting on any sport, bettors look at many stats when handicapping their picks.  The problem is that most of the public doesn’t know of the correct stats to use.

Whether it is baseball, football, hockey or basketball, professional handicappers don’t look at the most popular and general stats.  They use often ignored stats that are specific to one or two aspects of the game.

As there is in any sport, there are many different stats to look at in baseball.  You might be looking at the team’s run production and how a certain batter is hitting, or maybe you are comparing the win/loss records of the pitchers.

If you are using the overall win/loss records of the game’s pitchers, you are doing your bankroll a huge disservice.

Though I could go into why comparing the overall record of pitchers is a waste of time (maybe in another post), today’s tip on betting baseball reveals two important and often ignored pitching stats: RS (Run Support) and BIPA (Balls in Play Average).

Run Support

Pitching alone doesn’t win games.  But an average pitcher can look like a Cy Young contender when the bats are blazing and producing runs.

Though pitchers like Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay don’t usually need a lot of support, their job is a lot easier when the bats are producing in the other half of the inning.

Let’s face it; run support has a lot to do with a pitcher’s record.

Look at the 2010 AL Cy Young winner, Felix Hernandez.  His 13-12 record doesn’t exude dominance.  But he beat out CC Sabathia, who had a 21-7 record.

Just think what Hernandez’s record could have been if he had the run support that the New York Yankees provided Sabathia.

When you are comparing the pitchers of a match-up, take a sneak peak at his Run Support (RS) and compare it with the average run support that the team provides.

The run support for one pitcher can be different from another.  Though there are many reasons why, after discovering this, you can look into it more and find a hidden gem of a game to bet – or a reason to lay off the game completely.

Balls in Play Average

Another hidden pitching stat is Balls in Play Average (BIPA).

Unless you are looking at a pitcher like Derek Lowe (a relatively low ERA with a high BIPA), most pitchers that have a high BIPA are pitchers that teams can score on.

The next time you look at making a bet on a baseball game, check out the pitcher’s BIPA.  Does he allow a lot of balls to be hit in play?  What is his RS?  A pitcher with a high BIPA usually will need a high RS to overcome the scoring potential of the opposing team.

Are there other pitching stats that you look at?  Share them and how you use them in the comments below.